NFL Betting Power Rankings – How Should I Factor in Home Field Advantage?
As part of your “formula” for supplementing the power ratings, you’re going to factor in a home field advantage for each team. The basis of this is usually a field goal, but you may want to adjust it a point either way according to how much that really means to a team. For instance, how much of a home field advantage does a team like the Los Angeles Chargers have? They moved from San Diego to a city that didn’t necessarily cry out for them. They are playing in the smallest venue in the NFL, by far. And VietBet patrons have undoubtedly heard that more often than not, the visiting team has more fans in the stadium. So again, is there much of a home field edge to be had?
NFL Betting Power Rankings – Take a Deep Dive into Your Power Rankings
Okay, let’s move on. You can also adjust points for special circumstances, which might be what you perceive to be a let-down or look-ahead, a surface change, team dissension, etc., and you’ll want to adjust as well if there are injuries to key personnel that might materially affect a game. Again, don’t go to great lengths with something like this, unless there is a quarterback of star quality who has to be replaced by someone who is far inferior.
YOUR power ratings are the product of YOUR opinion. Don’t use someone else’s opinion as the basis of yours; that is if you consider your own opinion to be something of value. Once you’ve compiled your ratings, if you want to look at the rationale behind someone else’s, because perhaps there is something meaningful you might have missed, then of ahead and do that.
NFL Betting Power Rankings – Adjust Your Numbers According to Home Field Advantage
When you have settled on which numbers you’re going to work with, what you are going to do is just use those numbers to construct what would be YOUR NFL betting line on a game. To illustrate, if a team has a power rating of 94, and next week’s opponent, which is playing at home, has a rating of 95, then you can add three points to the home team’s total and you would make them a four-point favorite (barring special circumstances, of course).
Try to do this on Sunday night before you get a look at the opening numbers, because then what you will do is make your own comparison of your number to the sportsbook’s number and then determine whether you have “value” in the line with one team or the other. Frankly, if you have some pretty strong power ratings, you’re not going to find a big discrepancy on a lot of games, although it should be mentioned that in the early going, when things are shaking themselves out, there is so much there that is as yet unknown that you could find yourself with the possibility of an edge.
In pro football, if you’ve got a couple of points difference between your NFL betting line and that which appears in the sportsbook, you either have a play or something additional that has to be evaluated. If you’ve got a greater discrepancy than a couple of points, and confidence in your own opinion, then charge ahead a little more.
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By Charles Jay
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